Starting at number 3 is Killian Hayes. His very much improved scoring skills continue to calm the worries about his lack of explosiveness. He’s shooting 49.2 percent from the floor, converting his drives and floaters while making enough jumpers. His footwork for creating separation off the dribble, whether it’s into runners, pull-ups or step-backs, has quickly become advanced. Hayes’ decision-making with the ball still needs some improvements, but his passing and vision are very strong, especially when he’s operating out of pick-and-rolls. Wherever he goes next year his coach will wind up valuing his ability to make plays happen rather than his scoring early in his career. He whips crosscourt one-handers to shooters and delicate passes and lobs to bigs in the paint. The athletic limits and low-volume three-pointers (30 makes, 31 games) are the setbacks that make scouts question his NBA upside. But for a 6’5″, 18-year-old point guard, there is a lot to bet on with Hayes, between his playmaking, efficient finishing, budding perimeter game, 88.6 free-throw percentage. You’re only getting a preview of him right now, he is only 18 years old.
Number 2 on the list is Deni Avdija’s. He’s 16-of-33 from three over his last eight games, which include a pair of 20-plus-point outbursts in the Israel BSL, where he’s showing flashes of the shot-creation and scoring that led to MVP honors in the 2019 U20 European Championships. With fewer opportunities in Euroleague, he’s been, shooting 47.4 percent and scoring within the offense on pull-ups, transition, cuts and putbacks. He’s the draft’s most complete player. Lots of critics point to his 52.2 free-throw percentage as a scary indicator for his shooting development. And it’s understood, since an inconsistent jumper has been on the scouting report for years, and unpredictable shooting would make it tough for Avdija to match top-three value. I think poor free throws as more of a correctable weakness than a sign, just based on his form. The 6’8″ forward with ball-handling skills, passing instincts, speciality shot-making ability and defensive range should also show that his jumper will become a strength.
And finally the number 1 prospect in the NBA draft. Since moving up in draft stock in November before he shut it down in the NBL, LaMelo Ball remains atop the board entering March. With Ball, there is a greater sense of certainty—plus a path to stardom because of his 6’7″ size and undeniable ball-handling and passing skills. Even if his shot never develops the way most are hoping, but most likely will because he is already a better shooter than most NBA players. Ball can still make the game much easier for his teammates. But taking him No. 1 means buying that his scoring package will improve.
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